Global food commodity prices rose in September, with sugar, cereals and vegetable oils at the forefront. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations announced that its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points – up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from September 2025. The figures released on October 2 show new pressures in international food markets.

The Food Price Index tracks changes in the international prices of a basket of selected food commodities. It is a composite index that includes five categories of goods: cereals, vegetable oils, meat, dairy products and sugar. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the index reflects changes in the prices of goods, not the cost of a basket of goods purchased by a typical consumer in a particular country. Therefore, an increase in the Food Price Index does not mean a parallel increase in the cost of food in all countries. Rather, the picture changes depending on the structure of consumption and the set of goods purchased.

By the jump in prices for sugar – up 6.1% from the previous month – the largest among all categories, the FAO food index demonstrated mixed trends. The share of sugar in the overall index has grown significantly in recent months. According to the FAO, sugar prices rose 14.7% in September compared to a year earlier. This index rose for the third consecutive month, reaching its peak from April 2025.

Cereal prices also rose strongly, by 5.1% in September. They closed up by 17.2% compared to the same month of last year. The increase in the prices of vegetable oils was relatively modest – only 0.9% compared to the previous month, but 18.3% higher than in September 2025. It turns out that when you look at the total index, the situation is not so positive for farmers in their fight with climate risks.

Meanwhile, the price of meat turned downward in September. The meat price index declined 1.1% in September compared to the previous month, and was virtually the same compared to the same period last year. For the dairy product price index, this decrease was even lower – only 0.1%. Thus, it was the price of natural crops that drove the increase in the overall index.

At the same time, it should be noted that prices in the food sector are still far from the levels of 2022. In March 2022, the overall index peaked at a level of 250 points. At the end of last week in September, the index stood at 136 points, which is 15.1% below the peak. Prices are growing rapidly on a year-on-year basis, but the drawdown compared to the peak is still significant. Perhaps this will allow the index to continue to grow steadily to the next peak.

The trends of the last month give reason for thought about how unpredictable inflation can be. The jump in prices in general only affects the average price level for goods in the basket. Looking only at the average, without looking at its components, it is difficult to understand what exactly happened in a particular country for the given period.

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