Global trade sees mixed recovery with services trade growth prospects lower than goods, reports say World Trade Organization (WTO) on October 8th increased its 2026 forecast for merchandise trade by 3.9% compared to only 1.9% in March, while it lowered the projection for commercial services trade by 3.3% (initially set at 4.8%), Anadolu Agency reported.

While there is an improvement in the outlook for international commercial performance with regard to goods, not every business included in the general category sees the same opportunity.

Merchandise and services trade are two separate categories that include goods (products) and intangible items (travel, transportation, etc.). As such, goods trade volume growth prospects look higher than those of the services trade.

The international merchandise trade growth forecast for 2026 was 3.5% in the first half of the year, beating expectations, despite challenges in energy, fertilizers, and transportation markets. Growth was fueled by demand for AI products, balancing out the Middle East war impact, which had dampened demand.

As for the services, the Middle East war impacted travel and tourism significantly, adding to the upward pressure of energy prices on the global market, which in turn affected the services trade outlook negatively. It is noteworthy that the demand for technology equipment remained robust amid tightening international financial conditions.

According to the WTO press release, growth is projected at 4.1% for merchandise and 6.4% for services in 2027. However, these are only projections that display expectations for the two trade categories.

Forecasts are changing as new information emerges regarding the state of international commerce. As the new data shows, the outlook for international trade turned around for the better in 2026, and it can change again as fresh developments unfold in regard to demand for the goods and services traded internationally.

Projections are useful and informative, yet there is danger in looking at trade performance through the prism of one figure. There are different drivers for different types of goods and services. By assessing how different trade categories perform, one can better understand the state of international commerce and identify centers of growth.

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